Our projection accuracy
Updated October 16, 2026 · NFL Week 6 of 2026 · refreshed every morning
Every week we keep the last projection we published for each player before his game kicked off, then grade it against what he scored. The grade is the one start-and-sit advice is usually judged by: among the players a manager would really be choosing between (our top 24 quarterbacks, 48 running backs, 60 receivers and 24 tight ends that week), how closely the order of our projections matched the order of the scores. 1.00 would be perfect; 0 is a coin flip. Two plain baselines get the same grade on the same players: each player's season average so far, and his recent form (a weighted average of his last six games).
Put the projections to work. Link your league and the Lineup tab sets your best lineup from them, in your own scoring.
Set my lineup2026 season
5 weeks graded, 1 of them live (published before kickoff). Typical miss is in full-PPR points per player.
| Position | Our projections | Season average | Recent form | Our typical miss | Season average's miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 6.3 | 7.6 |
| Running backs | 0.58 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 5.6 | 6.6 |
| Receivers | 0.42 | 0.23 | 0.37 | 6.2 | 7.4 |
| Tight ends | 0.33 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 5.6 | 7.1 |
| All four | 0.40 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 5.9 | 7.2 |
2025 season
18 weeks graded, replayed with models that had only seen earlier seasons. Typical miss is in full-PPR points per player.
| Position | Our projections | Season average | Recent form | Our typical miss | Season average's miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | 0.29 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 5.7 | 6.6 |
| Running backs | 0.51 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| Receivers | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 5.8 | 6.2 |
| Tight ends | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 5.2 | 5.6 |
| All four | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 5.6 | 6.1 |
Week by week
| Week | How | Our projections | Season average | Our typical miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | live | 0.51 | 0.29 | 6.1 |
| Week 4 | replay | 0.40 | 0.24 | 5.5 |
| Week 3 | replay | 0.32 | 0.22 | 5.5 |
| Week 2 | replay | 0.42 | 0.23 | 6.1 |
| Week 1 | replay | 0.32 | – | 6.4 |
Over six seasons
Replayed over the 2020 to 2025 seasons, with the models trained only on the seasons before each one, our projections graded on the players the published expert consensus ranked highest each week, scored 0.39 across the four positions, the same as the consensus rankings themselves, and well ahead of a six-game weighted average (0.34). Week to week, any one ranking can look better or worse: the season figures are the ones to judge by.
"Replay" weeks were projected after the fact by models that had never seen them, using only what was known before each kickoff. "Live" weeks are the projections exactly as they were published on this site before the games.